Fractionally compromised

Final time is a summary, and summaries lie. A horse that sat behind a :26.4 opening quarter and faded is not slow; it was compromised by a pace it did not set and could not avoid.

The fix is to rate the horse against the shape of its own race rather than against the clock. Compare its own quarters to the race fractions, add beaten lengths back into the split, and the horse's real effort separates from the field's.

Compromised horses are where prices live. The chart shows a beaten favourite; the fraction-adjusted figure shows a horse that raced a length better than the winner.