MEADOWLANDS R6 FAIR PRICES BEFORE THE MONEY MOVES HARNESS ONLY TRACKMASTER PDF
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0–100 COW% FIELD SHARE
FAIR PRICES, NOT PICKS
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Race 10 — trajectory read Tap a card to flip between the trajectory and the figures.
No Nap Nash VOL 0.6
85 99 98 99
jump & hold — elite floor
Hillexotic VOL 4.2
93 91 97 99
staircase — peaking now
Oh Look Magic VOL 1.5
94 95 93 96
flat — going nowhere
Sayinwhatimthinkin VOL 3.5
93 96 90 96
sawtooth — inconsistent
Good Feeln To Know VOL 1.5
89 92 89 90
low & flat — outclassed
Robert Michael VOL 4
94 96 89 89
stepped down & stuck
Hung Over VOL 19.1
97 87 80 51
cliff dive — falling apart
PP Horse WAP CDI ADJ Proj
4 SUGAR APPLE N $11,400 -0.35 -1.68 86.0 → 84.3 UNTESTED AT THIS MONEY
What-if class move — click one
Drops a level
$5,700 · ADJ -4.00
-2.32 pts vs actual
LADDER $11,400 → $5,700 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($5,700/$14,500) = -1.35
-1.35 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -5.08 → capped -4.00
Drops a notch
$8,061 · ADJ -3.38
-1.70 pts vs actual
LADDER $11,400 → $8,061 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($8,061/$14,500) = -0.85
-0.85 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -3.38
Actual class
$11,400 · ADJ -1.68
as raced
LADDER $11,400 → $11,400 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($11,400/$14,500) = -0.35
-0.35 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -1.68
Steps up a notch
$16,122 · ADJ +1.00
+2.68 pts vs actual
LADDER $11,400 → $16,122 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($16,122/$14,500) = +0.15
+0.15 × k 2.6 × eff 1.25 + proven 0.50 = +1.00
Steps up a level
$22,800 · ADJ +2.20
+3.88 pts vs actual
LADDER $11,400 → $22,800 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($22,800/$14,500) = +0.65
+0.65 × k 2.6 × eff 1.00 + proven 0.50 = +2.20
5 JACKJIMBETTYNKAREN $10,333 -0.49 -2.41 84.5 → 82.1 FAILED AT THIS LEVEL
What-if class move — click one
Drops a level
$5,167 · ADJ -4.00
-1.59 pts vs actual
LADDER $10,333 → $5,167 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($5,167/$14,500) = -1.49
-1.49 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -5.56 → capped -4.00
Drops a notch
$7,307 · ADJ -3.86
-1.45 pts vs actual
LADDER $10,333 → $7,307 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($7,307/$14,500) = -0.99
-0.99 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -3.86
Actual class
$10,333 · ADJ -2.41
as raced
LADDER $10,333 → $10,333 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($10,333/$14,500) = -0.49
-0.49 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.75 = -2.41
Steps up a notch
$14,614 · ADJ -0.72
+1.69 pts vs actual
LADDER $10,333 → $14,614 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($14,614/$14,500) = +0.01
+0.01 × k 2.6 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.75 = -0.72
Steps up a level
$20,667 · ADJ +2.16
+4.57 pts vs actual
LADDER $10,333 → $20,667 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($20,667/$14,500) = +0.51
+0.51 × k 2.6 × eff 1.25 + proven 0.50 = +2.16
6 MAKES SENSE $18,567 +0.36 +1.66 88.0 → 89.7 DROP — PROVEN LIVE
What-if class move — click one
Drops a level
$9,283 · ADJ -2.69
-4.35 pts vs actual
LADDER $18,567 → $9,283 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($9,283/$14,500) = -0.64
-0.64 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 − proven 0.50 = -2.69
Drops a notch
$13,129 · ADJ -0.49
-2.15 pts vs actual
LADDER $18,567 → $13,129 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($13,129/$14,500) = -0.14
-0.14 × k 3.4 × eff 1.00 = -0.49
Actual class
$18,567 · ADJ +1.66
as raced
LADDER $18,567 → $18,567 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($18,567/$14,500) = +0.36
+0.36 × k 2.6 × eff 1.25 + proven 0.50 = +1.66
Steps up a notch
$26,257 · ADJ +3.28
+1.62 pts vs actual
LADDER $18,567 → $26,257 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($26,257/$14,500) = +0.86
+0.86 × k 2.6 × eff 1.25 + proven 0.50 = +3.28
Steps up a level
$37,133 · ADJ +4.00
+2.34 pts vs actual
LADDER $18,567 → $37,133 vs tonight $14,500
CDI log₂($37,133/$14,500) = +1.36
+1.36 × k 2.6 × eff 1.25 + proven 0.50 = +4.91 → capped +4.00
Class ladder log₂ purse scale
Each tick is that horse's recency-weighted average purse. Distance from the amber line is the class move — right of it is a drop, left is a rise.
ADJ = clamp(k × CDI × effort + class-proven, ±cap). Positive is a drop in class. Add it to the figure before COW% so class flows through the fair-odds line.
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